Beating the Taliban with Military Tact and Good Will by Richard Kidd 1 October 2001 Washington As one of the last American citizens to have spent a great deal of time in Afghanistan, I first went in 1993 to provide relief and assistance to refugees along the Tajik border, and in this capacity traveled all along the border region. From 1998 to 1999 I was the Deputy Program Manager for the UN's mine action program in Afghanistan. This program is the largest civilian employer in the country with over 5,000 persons clearing mines and un-exploded ordinances. In this later capacity, I was somewhat ironically engaged in a "Holy War" as decreed by the Taliban, against the evil of landmines, and by a special proclamation of Mullah Omar, all those who might have died in this effort were considered "martyrs" even an "infidel" like myself. The mine action program was the most respected relief effort in the country and because of this I had the opportunity to travel extensively, without too much interference or restriction. I still have extensive contacts in the area and among the Afghan community and read a great deal on the subject. Our enemy in the upcoming conflict is not the people of Afghanistan. The country is devastated beyond what most of us can imagine. The vast majority of the people live day-to-day, hand to mouth in abject conditions of poverty, misery and deprivation. Less than 30 percent of the men are literate, the women even less. The country is exhausted, and desperately wants something like peace. They know very little of the world at large, and have no access to information or knowledge that would counter what they are being told by the Taliban. They have nothing left, nothing that is except for their pride. Who is our enemy? Well, our enemy is a group of non-Afghans, often referred to by the Afghans as "Arabs," and a fanatical group of religious leaders and their military cohort, the Taliban. The Taliban draw their followers almost exclusively from one tribal group, the Pushtuns who make up roughly 40 percent of Afghans, and somewhat disturbingly something like 20-30 percent of Pakistanis. The non-Afghan contingent came from all over the Islamic world to fight in the war against the Russians. Many came using a covert network created with assistance by our own government. OBL (as Osama bin Laden was referred to by us in the country at the time) restored this network to bring in more fighters, this time to support the Taliban in their civil war against the former Mujahideen. Over time this military support along with financial support has allowed OBL and his "Arabs" to co-opt significant government activities and leaders. OBL is the "inspector general" of Taliban armed forces, his bodyguards protect senior Taliban leaders and he has built a system of deep bunkers for the Taliban, which were designed to withstand cruise missile strikes (ummm... where did he learn to do that?). His forces basically rule the southern city of Kandahar. This high-profile presence of OBL and his "Arabs" has, in the last two years or so, started to generate a great deal of resentment on the part of the local Afghans. At the same time the legitimacy of the Taliban regime has started to decrease as it has failed to end the war, as local humanitarian conditions have worsened and as "cultural" restrictions have become even harsher. It is my assessment that most Afghans no longer support the Taliban. Indeed the Taliban have recently had a very difficult time getting recruits for their forces and have had to rely more and more on non-Afghans, either from Pushtun tribes in Pakistan or from OBL. OBL and the Taliban, absent any U.S. action, were probably on their way to sharing the same fate that all other outsiders and outside doctrines have experienced in Afghanistan-defeat and dismemberment. During the Afghan war with the Soviets much attention was paid to the martial prowess of the Afghans. I was at West Point at the time and like most had high-minded idealistic thoughts about how we would all want to go help the brave "freedom fighters" in their struggle against the Soviets. Those concepts were naive to the extreme. The Afghans, while never conquered as a nation, are not invincible in battle. A "good" Afghan battle is one that makes a lot of noise and light. Basic military skills are rudimentary and clouded by cultural constraints that no matter what, a warrior should never lose his honor. Indeed, firing from the prone is considered distasteful (but still done). Traditionally, the Afghan order of battle is very feudal in nature, with fighters owing allegiance to a "commander" and this person owing allegiance upwards and so on. Often such allegiance is secured by payment. And while the Taliban forces have changed this somewhat, many of the units in the Taliban army are there because they are being paid to be there. All such groups have very strong loyalties along ethnic and tribal lines. A place of Honor Again, the concept of having a place of "honor" and "respect" is of paramount importance, and blood feuds between families and tribes can last for generations over a perceived or actual slight. That is one reason why there were seven groups of Mujahideen fighting the Russians. Each group reflected a different allegiance either along tribal lines or to a charismatic individual. It is very difficult to form and keep united a large bunch of Afghans into a military formation. The "real" stories that have come out of the war against the Soviets are very enlightening and a lot different from our fantastic visions. When the first batch of Stingers came in and were given to one Mujahideen group, another group -- supposedly on the same side -- attacked the first group and stole the Stingers, not so much because they wanted to use them, but because having them was a matter of prestige. Many larger coordinated attacks failed when all the various Afghan fighting groups would give up their assigned tasks (such as blocking or overwatch) and instead would join the assault group in order to seek glory. As you can tell, it is my assessment that these guys are not THAT good in a purely military sense and the "Arabs" probably even less so than the Afghans. So why is it that they have never been conquered? During their history the only events that have managed to form any semblance of unity among the Afghans is the desire to fight foreign invaders. And in doing this the Afghans have been fanatical. The Afghans' greatest military strength is the ability to endure hardships that would, in all probability, kill most Americans and enervate the resolve of all but the most elite military units. The physical difficulties of fighting in Afghanistan, the terrain, the weather and the harshness are all weapons that our enemies will use to their advantage and use well. (NOTE: For you military planner types and armchair generals, vehicle road movement on all but the most major roads becomes exceptionally difficult starting the end of October and lasting through May. Air movement is almost as problematic with high mountain peaks forming local storm conditions with high winds and blowing snow.) Those fighting us are not afraid to fight. OBL and others do not think the U.S. has the will or the stomach for a fight. Indeed after the missile strikes of 1998, widely perceived in the region as totally worthless, the overwhelming consensus was that we were cowards, who would not risk one life in face to face combat. Rather than demonstrating our might and acting as a deterrent, that action and others of the not so recent past, have reinforced the perception that the U.S. does not have any "will" and that we are morally and spiritually corrupt. Our challenge is to play to the weaknesses of our enemy, notably their propensity for internal struggles, the distrust between the extremists/"Arabs" and the majority of Afghans, their limited ability to fight coordinated battles and their lack of external support. More importantly, we have to take steps not to play to their strengths, which would be to unite the entire population against us by increasing their suffering or killing innocents, to get bogged down trying to hold terrain, or to get into a battle of attrition chasing up and down mountain valleys. I have been asked how I would fight the war. This is a big question and well beyond my pay grade or expertise. And while I do not want to second guess current plans or start an academic debate I would share the following from what I know about Afghanistan and the Afghans. Immediately, I would provide protection to legitimate moderate Afghans who have been resisting the Taliban both inside Afghanistan but also in Pakistan and elsewhere. These are the natural alternative to the Taliban and prime targets for Taliban assassins. We must protect the foundation of a future friendly regime. First after that, I would give the Northern Alliance a big wad of cash so that they can buy off a chunk of the Taliban army before winter. Second, using covert actions and more cash, I would disrupt the integrity of the Taliban leadership to sow distrust and build on existing discord. Third, I would support the Northern Alliance with military assets, but not take it over or adopt so high a profile as to undermine its legitimacy in the eyes of most Afghans. Fourth, I would give massive amounts of humanitarian aid and assistance to the Afghans in Pakistan in order to demonstrate our goodwill and to give them a reason to live rather than the choice between dying of starvation or dying fighting the "infidel." Fifth, I would start a series of public works projects in areas of the country not under Taliban control (these are much more than the press reports) again to demonstrate goodwill and that improvements come with peace. Sixth, I would consider very carefully putting any female service members into Afghanistan proper. Within that culture the high-profile presence of female soldiers would degrade the respect that our allies might have for us. One option I would consider would be to hold off from doing anything too dramatic in the short term, keeping a low level of covert action and pressure up over the winter, allowing this pressure to force open the fissures around the Taliban that are already developing. I expect that they will quickly turn on themselves and on OBL. We can pick up the pieces next summer, or the thereafter. The danger in this option is that it could risk destabilizing Pakistan. When we do "pick-up the pieces" I would make sure that we do so on the ground. While I would never advocate American casualties, it is essential that we communicate to OBL and all others watching that we can and will "engage and destroy the enemy in close combat." As mentioned, we should not try to gain or hold terrain, but Infantry operations against the enemy are essential. There can be no excuses after the defeat or lingering doubts in the minds of our enemies regarding American resolve and nothing will communicate this except for ground combat. And once this is all over (unlike in 1989) the U.S. must provide continued long-term economic assistance to rebuild the country. I think it is also important to share a few things on the subject of brutality. Our opponents will not abide by the Geneva Conventions. There will be no prisoners unless there is a chance that they can be ransomed or made part of a local prisoner exchange. During the war with the Soviets, videotapes were made of Russian prisoners having their throats slit. Indeed, there did exist a "trade" in prisoners so that souvenir videos could be made by outsiders to take home with them. This practice has spread to the Philippines, Bosnia and Chechnya where similar videos are being made today and can be found on the web for those so inclined. We can expect our soldiers to be treated the same way. Sometime during this war I expect that we will see videos of US prisoners having their heads cut off. Our enemies will do this not only to demonstrate their "strength" to their followers, but also to cause us to overreact, to seek wholesale revenge against civilian populations and to turn this into the world wide religious war that they desperately want. This will be a test of our will and of our character. This will not be a pretty war; it will be a war of wills, of resolve and somewhat conversely of compassion and of character. Towards our enemies, we must show a level of ruthlessness that has not been part of our military character for a long time. But to those who are not our enemies we must show a level of compassion previously unheard of during war. We should do this not for humanitarian reasons, even though there are many, but for shrewd military logic. ----------------- Richard Kidd is Program Manager of the Survey Action Center (SAC) and employee of the Vietnam Veterans of America Foundation. Kidd received a B.S. in International Relations from the United States Military Academy at West Point and a Master's Degree in Public and Private Management from the Yale School of Management. Licensed via Globalvision Network www.globalvision.org http://www.content-wire.com/Icon/Icons/Blank.gif http://www.content-wire.com/Home/Index.cfm?ccs=86&cs=799